Over the past week, the dollar has maintained its high-level volatility; but the pace of the market still has not translated into direction. This is partially a consequence of thin liquidity through the end of the summer and into the long, holiday weekend; but the same general affliction for the broader speculative market suggests the unusual calm has deeper fundamental roots.[dailyfx]
The Euro takes center stage with the European Central Bank set to announce interest rates and update their economic outlook for the Euro Zone. UK Services PMI and EZ Retail Sales are also on tap.
P&F EURUSD1 Box Size 4X4 or(0.11%) CLOSE
Data 1.4311 - 1.4194 ~ 0 Month ~ 1.05 Day
Database 1500 records [COLOR="DarkOrange"]1.42956 (Last Close)[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]2009-09-02 08~30
2009-09-03 09~41[/COLOR] (GMT+01:00) Paris
The single currency did resume medium term upmove and our indicated upside target at 1.4910 has been met, price looks set to test psychological resistance at 1.5000 and later to 1.5159 (61.8% projection of 1.3747 to 1.4845 measuring from 1.4480), then towards 1.5280 (100% projection of 1.4045 to 1.4845 measuring from 1.4480).[actionforex]
EUR/USD is still bounded in range below 1.4965 and consolidations from there is possibly still in progress. Nevertheless, note that short term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.4671 support holds. Break of 1.4965 will bring rally resumption to 1.5 psychological level first. Break will target 100% projection of 1.4177 to 1.4842 from 1.4483 at 1.5148 next. However, note that a break of 1.4671 support will argue that a short term top is at least formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.4483 support first.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD5 Box Size 10X4 or(0.27%) HI/LO
Data 1.4966 - 1.4672 < 0.5 Month ~ 11.02 Day
Database 2000 records [COLOR="DarkOrange"]1.49355 (Last Close)[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]2009-10-08 11~05
2009-10-19 11~40[/COLOR] (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group"
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Although the single currency rose marginally to 1.5064 in the beginning of last week, lack of follow through buying and the retreat from there suggest a temporary top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen. A daily close below 1.4674-83 minor support would add credence to this view and further fall towards support at 1.4480 but it is necessary to see a clear break of this level to confirm and bring correction of recent upmove to 1.4232 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2885 to 1.5064) would follow.[actionforex]
"P&F EURUSD60 Box Size 40X3 or(0.83%) HI/LO
Data 1.5062 - 1.3832 ~ 4 Month ~ 118.04 Day
Database 2001 records [COLOR="DarkOrange"]1.47681 (Last Close)[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]2009-07-07 11~00
2009-11-02 12~00[/COLOR] (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group"
Since April, the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) has steadily lost value against the Japanese yen (JPY). Across the Asia Pacific, the USD/JPY cross rate remains a key barometer of a two-way play of global economic fundamentals and risk aversion.
This barometer has experienced many high and low points in the last 26 months. In June 2007, the USD/JPY traded a five-year high of 124.16 to the USD. As far as the fundamentals were concerned, that five-year high was more about a weaker yen, than a stronger U.S. dollar. Over these 26 months, through better and worse, USD/JPY has declined as the yen has appreciated 25 percent against the U.S. dollar.
This 25 percent decline in USD/JPY is illustrated in Chart 1, with the initial change of trend signal appearing soon after the USD/JPY five-year high in June 2007. The red line over the price bars illustrate the MACD predictor (referred to as DiNapoliMP or “DiNapoli MACD predictor”). The regular DiNapoli MACD is shown at the bottom the chart.
The mechanics of the predictor are relatively simple. As shown in the chart when the price of USD/JPY fell below the red line on the price axis (MACD predictor), the corresponding trend as shown on the regular DiNapoli MACD is bearish (the MACD line is below the blue MACD signal line). The advantage of the MACD predictor is it gives a specific point reading on the price axis when the trend on the regular MACD is turning up or down ahead of market action. That price point for mid 2007 was a close below 118.60 for a confirmed bearish trend.
The GBP/JPY pair declined sharply, reaching the first objective of the short term bearish scenario at 148.35. Presently, it is re-testing the key resistance level of 150.60, while forming a Gap. We think that the mentioned gap is to be covered over the intraday basis around 149.30 zones. A break will confirm the potential downside continuation of the short term Elliott sequence. The secondary image shows that, a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern is supporting our overview.
Trading range for today is among key support at 145.50 and key resistance at 154.60.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.40 remains intact with target at 116.00.
Support: 150.00, 149.35, 148.60, 147.80, 146.85
Resistance: 150.60, 151.25, 151.75, 152.30, 153.40
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair from 150.60 targeting 148.70 and stop loss above 151.75 might be appropriate.[actionforex]
"P&F GBPJPY240 Box Size 320X3 or(5.75%) HI/LO
Data 214.92 - 118.785 ~ 16 Month ~ 472.33 Day
Database 2000 records [COLOR="DarkOrange"]151.325 (Last Close)[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]2008-07-25 00~00
2009-11-09 08~00[/COLOR] (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. But still with 1.5102 support intact, we're favoring the bullish case that choppy fall from 1.5238 has completed at 1.5080 already. Above 1.5145 will bring rise resumption to 1.5238 resistance first. Nevertheless, break of 1.5102 minor support will dampen this immediate bullish view and indicate that another fall could still be seen to 1.5076 and below before concluding recent consolidations.
In the bigger picture, firstly, price actions from 1.5446 are treated as consolidation to rise from 1.4577 only and such rise is expected to resume sooner or later to test 1.5880 resistance. Secondly, the corrective structure of the fall from 1.5880 to 1.4577 indicates that it's a correction to medium term rise from 1.4315. Rise from 1.4577 is tentatively treated as resumption of rally from 1.4315. Hence we're expecting an eventual break of 1.5880 as rise from 1.4315 resumes. In other words, we're favoring the case that long term down trend from 1.6826 has completed at 1.4315 already. We'll hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.5007 support remains intact.[actionforex]
"P&F EURCHF1440 Box Size 80X4 or(2.06%) HI/LO
Data 1.6827 - 1.4315 [COLOR="Sienna"]~ 48 Month[/COLOR] ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records [COLOR="DarkOrange"]1.50417 (Last Close)[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]2005-11-10 00~00
2009-11-26 00~00[/COLOR] (GMT+01:00) Paris BJF Trading Group chart"