European debt concerns will subside, eventually
The past week started off with a Fitch ratings downgrade of Greece followed by S&P moving Spain's credit outlook to negative, though its ratings were affirmed. The moves rattled investors' nerves and weighed on the EUR and other European currencies. The financial media filed the obligatory 'risk of a sovereign debt default' and the 'euro could come undone' stories, adding to concerns on Europe. However, we think the ratings moves are simply a short-term blow to sentiment which dovetailed nicely with the Euro cresting at the beginning of December. There is little immediate concern of a debt default as seen in Greek government debt yields, which while about 2% higher than German yields, are not in panic territory at about 5.2%. Indeed, should the worst come to pass it would likely only be later next year and lead to a rescue package from the IMF or the EU. European leaders were consistent in admonishing the most deficit-heavy countries to address budget issues urgently, and leaders of those nations' seemed to get the message, but they also indicated that they would mutually address any terminal credit crisis. As for the fate of the EUR, there is zero chance of EMU coming undone or Greece being thrown overboard, given treaty obligations. In that sense, the impact on the EUR is largely psychological, but that doesn't mean it can't weigh on the common currency further, which is why we also see scope for further EUR weakness ahead. We think fears may begin to subside in the New Year as investors conclude the risks are overblown and assets get put back to work in the new calendar year.[Written by Forex.com]
"P&F [COLOR="DarkOrange"]EUR_Day_MIX[/COLOR] Box Size 48X3 or(1.44%) CLOSE
Data 107.357 - 92.9315 [COLOR="DarkOrange"]~ 49 Month[/COLOR] ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records [COLOR="DarkOrange"]100 (Last Close)[/COLOR]
[COLOR="Blue"]2005-11-25 00~00
2009-12-11 00~00[/COLOR] (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"
107.52|~48||______________________________________ ________________|-0.15%|15.7%
107.04|~96||______________________________x___x___ ________________|0.3%|15.18%
106.56|~144|______________________________x_o_x_o_ ________________|0.74%|14.67%
106.08|~192|______________________________x_o_x_o_ ________________|1.19%|14.15%
105.60|~24O|______________________________x_o___o_ ________________|1.64%|13.63%
105.12|~288|______________________________x_____o_ ________________|2.08%|13.12%
104.64|~336|______________________________x_____o_ ________________|2.53%|12.6%
104.16|~384|______________________________x_____o_ x_______________|2.98%|12.08%
103.68|~432|______________________________x_____o_ x_o_____________|3.43%|11.57%
103.20|~48O|______________x_______________x_____o_ x_o_____________|3.87%|11.05%
102.72|~528|__________x___x_o_____________x_____o_ x_o_____________|4.32%|10.53%
102.24|~576|__________x_o_x_o_____________x_____o_ x_o_x___x_______|4.77%|10.02%
101.76|~624|__________x_o_x_o_____x___x___x_____o_ x_o_x_o_x_o_____|5.21%|9.5%
101.28|~672|__________x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x_____o_ x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|5.66%|8.98%
100.80|~72O|__________x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_ x_o_x_o___o_x_o_|6.11%|8.47%
100.32|~768|______x___x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_ x_o_______o_x_o_|6.55%|7.95%
99.84|~816||______x_o_x_____o___o_x_o_x_o_______o_ __________o___o_|7%|7.43%
99.36|~864||______x_o_x_________o_x_o_x___________ ________________|7.45%|6.92%
98.88|~912||______x_o_x_________o___o_x___________ ________________|7.9%|6.4%
98.40|~96O||__x___x_o_______________o_x___________ ________________|8.34%|5.88%
97.92|~1OO8|__x_o_x_________________o_x___________ ________________|8.79%|5.37%
97.44|~1O56|__x_o_x_________________o_____________ ________________|9.24%|4.85%
96.96|~11O4|__x_o_________________________________ ________________|9.68%|4.33%
96.48|~1152|__x___________________________________ ________________|10.13%|3.82%
96.00|~12OO|__x___________________________________ ________________|10.58%|3.3%
95.52|~1248|__x___________________________________ ________________|11.03%|2.79%
95.04|~1296|__x___________________________________ ________________|11.47%|2.27%
94.56|~1344|__x___________________________________ ________________|11.92%|1.75%
94.08|~1392|__x___________________________________ ________________|12.37%|1.24%
93.60|~144O|o_x___________________________________ ________________|12.81%|0.72%
93.12|~1488|o_x___________________________________ ________________|13.26%|0.2%
92.64|~1536|o_____________________________________ ________________|13.71%|-0.31%
Column||||||3_123_7_4_9_4_5_7_3_5_6_9_9_4_153_3_15 9_8_4_3_3_5_3_3_|
Count
BJF-Trading-Group-EurIndex_091212.xls