EU, EJ scalping journal (by Rao)

[Tovinces]

Hi!
I believe forex can give a great % of return on deposit. I think all of us know the phrase "a trader who has +40% a year is a king of Wall Street". The peculiarity of this phrase is that it's not actual by now, when an absolute record is ~70000% (!) a month!
A trader should make a choice between long-term positions (with a high % of winning ratio) and scalping (attempts to catch the most miserable moves in price). I decided to choose last one.

In my journal I will post my scenarios of scalping at EU and EJ. I hope I could read something from you, with your own thoughts.

[Tovinces]

Before starting scalping the following week I made an attempt to look at the market more closely in order to find the major movement.

It's not hard to understand, that I came to such a conclusion after a bullish burst at the end of Friday, which reversed the gains of the whole week and - unfortunately - the amount of my money as well.

But it doesn't make me afraid. I'm eager: you can start making money at Forex only after you learn losing money without emotions.

[Tovinces]

Let me start from analyzing EURJPY instrument, as its position seems for me more clear than on EURUSD.

4h chart:
After the price touched 131 res. level for the 3rd time, it started to move lower consequently. I counted traditional 5-wave downtrend.
*I should mention that most of all I appreciate Elliot and Fibonacci theories in analyzing price.*

When the price made a new low at 112.1 (21. Jan) it reversed and till this day it seems to be in consolidation phase: sometimes price action goes mad, but it is still standing in 112-120 range.

I zoomed this consolidation sector to look at it in details. In order to complete the pattern it should get once more higher than the previous high @ 120.32.

Then a question stands: till when will the price retrace? On daily chart 112.1 is the lowest point counting from August'08 downtrend. I doubt the price will go lower than 112, because on daily chart the 5th wave of downtrend is also completed (we counted it on 4h TF).

It seems for me that we are close to begin a bullish movement. This idea is also supported by growing concern of strong Yen from Japan government, JPY crosses are to go higher in the coming weeks.

Speaking about scalping, I will watch 3-wave correction heading down in the next few days.

[hedgehog]

EDITED BY ADMIN.

[jaberize]

Hi Tovinces,
I like the way you laid out the information there and I do thank you.
The question is that where you expected a rebound of the 120.50 level?
My other question is that lets say it did break your lower level boundary wouldnt that expose the pair to further downside?
Still a newbie around here, and trying to learn as much as possible.
Thanks

[Tovinces]

As I wrote yeasterday, price went at the beggining of the day higher than it closed on Friday.
I did put a tick on the chart when I thought the price would stop rising and begin a retrace. Nevertheless, EJ went even higher and made another strong bullish wave. In fact, it didn't change my previous scenario:
on hourly chart I see 5-wave bullish trend has finished and the time has come for a significant retrace, not just for the last up-move.

It seems for me that the price has already made 3 waves in its downturn, they are i-ii-iii subwaves of the upcoming bearish 1 of 3.

*I'm not really eager in my mid-term analysis, because it takes some time to be proved or failed. I will be pleased to see your view on EJ.*

Speaking about the upcoming trading, I'm selling in order to catch the 5th wave. Right now - the price is still retracing (u can see it on 5min tf). I suggest the price will go down ~119.6

[Tovinces]

Price action this day is predictable, I like balanced moves, which can be foreseen

On 15 min chart we can see price has finished it's 5-wave bearish movement (it could be seen on higher TF as the 1st wave of the correction, which I tried to describe above).
If the pattern is proved (it means that the price won't go lower than 119.76), it's obvious the time has come for a retrace. It's likely a 3-wave pattern will be formed. On the attached chart I put price marks of Fibo retracement levels, which can be mentioned as target-points.
As the upcoming correction is related with the 1st wave of the major move, the correction can be significant.

PS. From the other side, we should take in mind strong bearish momentum which appeared on EU this day. It's hard for me to analyze today's price action on EU, so I left it till the situation is clear.

*By the way, the possibility of the upcoming correction is supported be Stochs.

[Tovinces]

On Asian session, as I have predicted, the price rose till 121 level and went even higher. It touched a 23,6% (76,4%) Fibo level and consists from 3 mini-waves.

6 AM GMT opened with a strong bearish move, on 1h chart stochastics oscillator is almost crossed in overbought area. As the price didn't manage to go higher than yesterday (121.92) I'm awaiting a strong bearish move, which will be shown on x hour(s) timeframes as the 3rd wave.
Keep in mind: as it is 3rd wave, it should be longer than the 1st one, the initial target is 118.8-119 area, but I suppose the price would fall even further, till 117.3-118.

[Tovinces]

Originally Posted by jaberize

Hi Tovinces,
I like the way you laid out the information there and I do thank you.
The question is that where you expected a rebound of the 120.50 level?
My other question is that lets say it did break your lower level boundary wouldnt that expose the pair to further downside?
Still a newbie around here, and trying to learn as much as possible.
Thanks

Thanks for your interest , I really appreciate it.
Your questions are connected with mid-term analysis, I used to think that the time will show what will go if... For me it's better to catch mini-moves on low TFs.

[Tovinces]

The continuation of bullish trend showed me that I failed with my initial pattern. I refreshed the hourly chart, where I expanded the 1st wave. If so, this time the 5-wave pattern is finished at last and EJ is ready to retrace on high TFs.