Turbopro's Journal

[turbopro]

Seeing as we have a few earlier journals, thought I might add my own.

Style: Trend Trader; prefer the mid/long-term trades; better for my sanity; I also have a demanding job as a Telecom/IT engineer.

Pairs: GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCHF, GBPAUD, GBPCAD
EURUSD, EURJPY, EURCHF, EURAUD, EURCAD
(Sometimes the USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY)

Method: I use the MACD, Slow Stochastics, RSI, and Fibo

MACD: 12,26,9
Slo Stoch: 26,5,5
RSI: 26
Fibo: Determined from the highest high/lowest low of the daily

I use the monthly and weekly charts to determine the trend. Then, I check the daily; if it's moving in sync with the trend, i look to the 4-hr for an entry; if it's not in sync, i sit on the sidelines. As a result, I have maybe one or two trades per week only. My Stop Loss is also reasonably large: determined by the Fibo level below the PA for a BUY, or, the Fibo level above the PA for a SELL. Take Profit is the next Fibo level.

Initially, I use 1 x Mini-Lot; will add as the trade moves in my direction.

I prefer this method as it is easier to manage; no need to sit and watch the PA all day long. I check-in every few hours or so.

Brokers (both mini-lots): MB Trade, FXCM


Current trades:

Pair Date/Time Open Close S/L T/P
GBPAUD 03242009-11:23 2.0968 2.1350 2.0700
2.0600

EURAUD 03232009-03:13 1.9518 1.9750 1.9150
1.8500

EURCAD 03242009-11:27 1.6574 1.6850 1.6325
1.6325


I took the GBPAUD and EURAUD based on the current monthly and weekly showing down movement. Once the daily showed exhaustion with an upmove, jumped right in.

The EURCAD is based on the downmove in the triangle on the daily.


Thanks

Vern


PS - Recently read books:

- Hyperion, Dan Simmons
- Endymion, Dan Simmons
- Les Miserables, Victor Hugo
- Theogenes, Hesiod


Currently listening to:

- Amon Duul
- T-Bone Walker
- John Coltrane
- Lee "Scratch" Perry
- Deicide
- Iron Maiden
- Brothers Johnson
- Tafelmusik Baroque Orchestra
- Loop
- Pepe Kalle

[turbopro]

Current trades:

Pair Date/Time Open Close S/L T/P
GBPAUD 03242009-11:23 2.0968 2.1350 2.0700
2.0600

Appears that the GBPAUD is in a range at the moment on the daily chart; the monthly and weekly continue to point down. First target at 2.0700 hit; second target, 2.0600 in sight.

If the move down continues, will look for retest of earlier Jan 2009 low of 2.0200. Will hold current short.



EURAUD 03232009-03:13 1.9518 1.9750 1.9150
1.8500

The EURAUD is in a significant decline on the daily, though the Slow Stochastics shows oversold. The monthly and weekly continue to point down.

First target at 1.9150 hit; second target, 1.8500 in sight. If the decline continues, it may retest the low of last November @ 1.8500. The daily chart does not show any significant resistance zones before this possible retest.

Will maintain hold my current short.



EURCAD 03242009-11:27 1.6574 1.6850 1.6325
1.6325

In a trading range on the daily. Weekly and monthly show sideways to up. May close this with a loss later today after EU rate decision.




For now, holding pattern on all positions.

Eur rate decision today, and NFP tomorrow should provide some direction.


JPY crosses appear to be headed North; GBPJPY and AUDJPY retesting recent highs of Middle March. Perhaps the The carry trades are back in vogue.

On AUDJPY, both monthly and weekly showing up movement; may continue retrace to daily Fibo 61.8, 74.00 (July 08 high / Oct 08).

Will look for a possible BUY on the 4 hour on weakness.



cheers

[turbopro]

Here are a few charts of my current trades: EURAUD, EURCAD, and GBPAUD, dated Apr 07 2009.

Took me a while to find a suitable image editor application: I used "Irfanview."


cheers

[turbopro]

Initiated a short on the GBPCAD earlier today.

Entry: 1.8055 : Short : 1 x Mini-Lot

Stop Loss: 1.8350

Take Profit: 1.7650


Bearish Divergence on daily chart. SL and TP based on Fibo levels (please see the attached).


I know we're technical traders, but the fundamentals drive the technicals--in my humble opinion. Anyhoo, the Aussie and the Loonie appear to have some momentum in gaining strength against the other majors. I believe the Kiwi will follow suit shortly. These three commodity economies, being relatively smaller than the US, EUR, JPY, and GBP economies, tend to turn the corner somewhat more quickly. Nonetheless, all this could change at the drop of a hat


Cheers

[turbopro]

Over the last two weeks, both EURAUD and GBPAUD crosses seem to be ranging at what may be a key figure for each. The weekly Slow Stochastic for the GBPAUD is oversold, while the monthly is headed to oversold territory. With lots of news this week--the AUD rate decision tonight--I am not sure if the reaction will not move the market against my current profits. May move my stop down to within 100 pips of the current PA before the announcement.

For the EURAUD, the monthly shows lots of room for further movement down. Nonetheless, the PA may move against my profits, and move some ways, before resuming the downtrend. Intend to hold one mini-lot through tonite.

In anticipation of Thursday's GBP and EUR rate decision, I'll observe market intent over the next two days. If the momentum continues down, this may signal the continuing direction for the AUD crosses.

The AUDUSD is moving up, but the PA is about to hit the Fibo 61.8% retracement from the 0.9860 <--> 0.6000 steep descent last summer-fall. The PA may blow though the Fibo level, but it may not. Given the unknown that lays ahead, will move to protect profits.

I can always exit, and if the move down looks to continue, I can re-enter my shorts.

Please refer to the attached screen captures.


My GBPCAD and EURCAD trades still show momentum down; the EURCAD much more room to move than the GBPCAD. Will see what happens after this week.


cheers.



PS -- as I write this [20:22 EDT, May 04 2009], the Aussie is climbing like a liana in the Brazilian rain forests, pushing the crosses down.

[turbopro]

Commodity Currencies, AUD, CAD, and NZD look to remain stronger than EURO, GBP, and USD. Thus, the crosses remain in decline.

For GPBAUD and EURAUD, the Stochastics are in the oversold territory on the monthly charts; the EURAUD appears to have room to move down yet.

GBPCAD and EURCAD Stochastics on the monthly are in the oversold territory also; and GPBCAD is at a low for the period since 1997! Both GBPCAD and EURCAD show room to move down yet. EURCAD has lots of potential to continue its decline.

GBPNZD and EURNZD show room to continue downward; EURNZD is not yet in oversold territory in the Stochastics, though GBPNZD is already there. The potential for continued decline is not as strong here as for the AUD and CAD crosses. Nonetheless, the fundamentals suggest further decline. We'll find out in due course.


Going forward, the recent problems in Greece, and the continuing slow economic growth in the UK, would suggest that the EURO and the GBP may continue to be weaker than the commodity currencies. The interest rate hike last Thursday evening by the FED may change the dynamic for the USD as it shows some strength. We should have an idea where things will flow by end March.

If the ECB and the BOE follow suit and raise interest rates soon, it may be time to close my trades.


Some of my trades were opened last April, October and November. These are the longest running trades I've made in 4 years of learning and trading. They have been the most lucrative. Trend/Position trading suits me just fine, thank you.


cheers

[turbopro]

Closed EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, and EUR/NZD trades. Given the rate hike of last April/May, we may see the reversal of the long-term downtrend. At least if not a reversal, we may see the down-trend change to consolidation.

The GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, and the GBP/NZD, though generally all now in the oversold region of the monthly charts, still appear to be headed down. The bearish BOE mode may continue for another few months as the UK's economic problems continue. Moreover, the Chinese and Indians continue to buy anything the Aussies and Kiwis can produce.

Good trading people.