[COLOR="Green"]Citigroup: AUD/USD will advance[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. claim that Australian currency may climb to 4-month maximum versus the greenback at 0.93 reached last time on April 30.
According to the specialists, the pair AUD/USD is still trading within an uptrend after it has formed reverse “head-and-shoulders” figure of 3 minimums with the deepest in the middle at 0.8770 and the side ones at 0.8860.
Aussie made today corrective decline from yesterday’s 0.9176 mark when the rate approached August 6 level lying at the trend resistance from the April maximum. Support levels are situated at 0.9080 and 0.9032.
[COLOR="green"]BMO Capital Markets: euro will rise to $1.34 in 2012[/COLOR]
Analysts at BMO Capital Markets believe that the pair EUR/USD hit long-term minimum in 1.1870 area in June. In their view, the single currency is slowly recovering since that time and will rise to 1.3400 in 2012.
The specialists note that the average rate of euro during the last 3 months was around 1.2700. European currency is thought to climb to 1.3100 in the first quarter of 2011 and then consolidate in 1.3300 zone in the second half of that year.
Euro will keep gradually strengthening during 2012 to extend to 1.3400 in the second quarter of that year, expects BMO Capital Markets.
[COLOR="green"]Morgan Stanley: dollar forecast reduced[/COLOR]
Analysts at Morgan Stanley reduced forecast for the greenback versus the single currency. The specialists assume that the Federal Reserve will make further steps of monetary easing. In their view, many of the obvious currencies to own such as commodity and those with strong domestic balance sheets are already very expensive.
According to the strategists, euro will trade at $1.36 at the end of 2010 and then decline to $1.32 in the first quarter of 2011, to $1.28 – in the second, to $1.26 – in the third and to $1.24 – in the fourth quarter. Earlier estimate supposed fall to $1.16 and then to $1.12, $1.12, $1.14 and $1.17 in the following quarters.
[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: USD/JPY will fall to 82.81[/COLOR]
The greenback renewed yesterday 15-year minimum versus Japanese currency at 83.33. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair USD/JPY hasn’t bottomed yet.
According to the specialists, when US dollar broke through support at 83.58 (August minimum) it began moving down to test 82.81 zone (2008-2010 support line).
If American currency manages to recover, it should overcome 84.82 level (20-day MA) to ease current downward momentum.
[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: EUR/USD will rise a bit[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the single currency got held by the 26-day MA and returned into the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Never the less, it’s necessary to take into account that 50% Fibonacci retracement support made euro go up during the last two weeks.
All in all, the specialists say that momentum stopped being bullish, while the European currency isn’t overbought. As a result, the recommendation is to look forward to try small longs at 1.2720 stopping below 1.2575. Mizuho strategists think that EUR/USD will trade in its current area slowly moving upwards to 1.2800 and then 1.2900.
[COLOR="green"]Danske Bank: daily forex outlook[/COLOR]
Strategists at Danske Bank note that market’s concerns about financial health of the European banks strengthened. As a result, investors increased demand for Japanese yen, Swiss franc and US dollar.
The pairs USD/JPY and EUR/USD keep declining. The specialists note that support levels for them are at 82.98 and 1.2606, respectively. Danske underline that spreads on sovereign debt of the euro zone countries continue extending, affecting euro’s rate. Three month forecast of the bank is still at 1.24.
Danske Bank economists note that Canadian central bank may move the market today. In their view, bank of Canada’s benchmark rate will be lifted up by 25 basis points. USD/CAD is currently the G10 currency pair with the highest correlation with relative interest rates.
[COLOR="green"]WSJ: stress tests results aren’t accurate[/COLOR]
The recent stress tests of major euro area’s banks the results of which were published at the end of July may have underestimated the size of potentially risky government bonds holdings, wrote yesterday the Wall Street Journal.
Further examination has showed that some lenders excluded certain bonds, and many reduced the sums to account for "short" positions they held. Among them are Barclays PLC and Crédit Agricole SA, while it’s difficult to understand now the total number banks that were misleading financial authorities.
As a result, the effect of the stress tests that were held in order to reassure investors in the soundness of Europe's financial system may be erased.
Concerns strengthen as heavily indebted countries like Ireland and Greece continue to struggle. Among other warning signs, the costs of insuring many bank and government bonds against default in countries such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy rose above levels that were seen before the stress tests.
[COLOR="green"]On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets[/COLOR]
