[COLOR="Green"]06/09/10[/COLOR]
[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: risk sentiment will define franc's rate[/COLOR]
Analysts at Commerzbank expect that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will raise rates from the minimal 0.25% level by the end of 2010, while the Federal Reserve and European central bank may begin hiking rates only by the end of the next year.
The bank believes that Swiss currency will appreciate slowly versus the single currency. The possibility of deflation reduced as Swiss CPI demonstrated no decrease in August after 0.7% July fall, so the central bank is unlikely to intervene to the currency market.
In the absence of economic data this week except Switzerland’s unemployment rate that will be released on Tuesday franc’s rate will depend mainly on investors’ risk sentiment, note the specialists.
[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: yuan will rise to 6.7 per dollar by the year end[/COLOR]
Chinese yuan rose to the maximal level since August 19. It happened due to the start of negotiations between Larry Summers, head of President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council, and Li Yuanchao, head of the Communist Party’s organization department.
Specialists at Citigroup Inc. believe that the United States will press China to allow yuan gain more. In addition, Citigroup notes that the greenback’s weakness also contributes to the growth of Chinese currency. The analysts suppose that yuan may climb to 6.7 per dollar by the end of 2010.
Yuan gained 0.6% versus its American counterpart since its peg to US currency was revoked on June 19.
[COLOR="green"]UBS: euro rose to 3-week maximum versus dollar[/COLOR]
The single currency reached today 3-week maximum versus the greenback at 1.2918.
Strategists at UBS claim that it happened on the positive Friday’s US payrolls data that lost only 54,000 versus 101,000 forecast decline.
Such encouraging figures eased concerns about double-dip recession in America and revived investors’ risk appetite making them increase demand for euro and growth-linked currencies like the Australian dollar.
Many traders also think that Asian central banks, excluding Japanese one, are selling dollars for euro after they intervened to stem advance in their national currencies versus US dollar.
UBS analysts note that it’s not clear how long optimistic sentiment will remain.
[COLOR="green"]07/09/10
Mizuho recommends investors to but pounds above $1.5480[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank in London advise investors to buy British currency versus the greenback if it rises to $1.5480 looking forward to further strengthening of the pound. According to the specialists, sterling may advance to $1.56 and then $1.57. The trade should be stopped if GBP/USD gets down below $1.53, recommends Mizuho.
The strategists note that the weekly Ichimoku Cloud is very thin and MA analysis gives bullish results. Rising daily Cloud adds upward momentum as well.
Pound lost 5% against US dollar this year. The pair GBP/USD is currently trading in 1.5375 area.
[COLOR="green"]Forecast Pte expects EUR/USD to rise[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Forecast Pte believe that the single currency may climb to one-month maximum versus the greenback if it overcomes major resistance levels at $1.2839 (50-day MA) and $1.2873 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of euro’s decline from the August 6 maximum at $1.3334 to the August 24 minimum at $1.2588).
If the pair EUR/USD goes higher, above resistance at August 18 maximum at $1.2923, it may be able to strengthen to $1.3334, claim the specialists. It’s also necessary to pay attention to resistance at $1.2961 (50% retracement of the August decrease) and at $1.3049 (61.8% retracement).
According to Forecast Pte, all indicators suppose upward dynamics of the European currency. Euro’s MACD got above its signal line on September 3 for the first time in 3 months. The MACD today was minus 0.0009, while the signal line was found at minus 0.0023.
[COLOR="green"]Danske Bank: daily forex outlook[/COLOR]
Specialists at Danske Bank believe that forex market will keep being sideways for the second day in a row, even though US trade will open today after yesterday’s celebration Labor Day.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its benchmark rate unchanged at this morning’s meeting and didn’t make any changes in monetary policy despite the recent strong domestic data. The analysts believe that Australian dollar will gain versus both its Canadian and New Zealand’s counterparts due to stronger cyclical position of the country’s economy.
In addition, the bank advised to look forward to declines in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY as the risk appetite may worsen rising investors’ demand for yen.
[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro and dollar will lose to yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank expect that the single currency and the greenback will show downward dynamics trading versus Japanese yen.
The specialists note that there is “triangle” consolidation between the moving averages for the pair EUR/JPY. Resistance at 109.50 is getting stronger and this level is likely to be the upper border of euro’s trading range this week. Mizuho strategists advise investors to sell European currency in 107.70/108.00 area stopping above 109.65. Euro may fall to 106.60, claims Mizuho.
As for the pair USD/JPY, the situation remains bearish as well and the greenback is thought to fall to 83.85/83.50. The analysts recommend selling US dollar in 84.15/ 84.50 zone stopping above 85.25.
[COLOR="green"]Nomura: USD/JPY will fall to 82.50 by the end of 2010[/COLOR]
Analysts at Nomura Securities Co. lifted up their yen forecast from 87.50 to 82.50 yen per dollar by the end of 2010. The specialists believe that Japanese currency may advance to 80 per dollar by March 2011 approaching the record maximum at 79.75 reached in 1995.
The main reasons for forecast revision were global uncertainty and decreasing yields on US debt. Yields on 2-year Treasury notes considered to be the best signal for USD/JPY rate may drop to 0.4% as the economic outlook for the United States is far from encouraging, underlines Nomura.
[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank expects EUR/CHF corrective rebound[/COLOR]
The single currency declined from Friday’s maximum at 1.3160 getting below 1.3000 today. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/CHF is heading to the previous minimum at 1.2850. In their view, this level will be able to hold bearish pressure in the near term and, possibly, act as base for euro.
Commerzbank specialists ask investors to pay attention to divergence on daily and weekly RSI. According to them, last week the situation was the same: European currency hit record minimum at 1.2850 which wasn’t confirmed by the daily RSI, while the weekly RSI also diverged. As a result, corrective rebound of EUR/CHF seems to be quite likely.
[COLOR="green"]ANZ Banking Group: reasons of Aussie’s decline[/COLOR]
Australian currency weakened today affected by a group of factors.
Firstly, current Prime Minister Julia Gillard managed to win support of key independent lawmakers. As a result, her Labor Party will keep the government and enact a tax on mining companies.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.5% at this morning’s meeting despite strong domestic data claiming that there’s too much uncertainty abroad.
Strategists at Sumitomo Trust Bank believe that strong rebound of the world’s economy is necessary to make Aussie rise above $0.92. Economists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne note that the central bank will wait for inflation rate release in October to plan further actions that will put the national currency under negative pressure.
In addition, risk sentiment worsened due to concerns about the financial health of European governments and banks. Germany's banking association announced yesterday that the country's 10 biggest banks may need 105 billion euro of additional capital because of the banking rules revision. Consequently, demand for Aussie that is regarded as the risky asset reduced.
[COLOR="green"]Bank of Japan will act timely[/COLOR]
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa claimed today that the central bank is always considering various policy options and will act in a timely and appropriate way when necessary.
Although Japanese monetary authorities are watching market moves very carefully as well as the impact of strong yen on the country’s economy, they won’t react to short-term forex and stock moves.
Further monetary easing is still possible next month, noted Shirakawa.
[COLOR="green"]On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets[/COLOR]
