[COLOR="green"]Saxo Bank: daily currency forecast [/COLOR]
EUR/USD: the pair may rise above 1.2350 or fall below 1.22. The target level is set at 1.2420. It’s recommended to stop below 1.23 and 1.2165 respectively.
USD/JPY: resistance lowered to 91.40, while the next support is found at 90.85.
EUR/JPY: if euro gets below 111.90, it is likely to extend its decline to 111.50. The pair will be fluctuating in range between 111.50 and 112.50 making only slight bias.
GBP/USD: if pound falls below the near-term support at 1.4680, it may continue decreasing to 1.4615. Otherwise, the pair will be trading in range between 1.4680 and 1.4750.
AUD/USD: the trend for the pair is regarded as neutral. The next support for Aussie is found at 0.8575, while below this level the pair would fall to 0.8510 or stay in range between 0.8575 and 0.8665.
USD/CAD: the trend for the pair is regarded as neutral. The greenback found the near-term base at 1.0225 and will be trading again between it and 1.03.
[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: growth pace of Australia’s economy will decrease[/COLOR]
Australian currency declined from its 4-week maximum versus the greenback reflecting the reduced demand for higher-yielding assets that fell as Asian equities and US stock futures were down. Commodities’ prices including crude oil’s and copper’s also decreased affecting investors’ appetite as raw materials represent more than half of Australian exports.
According to Citigroup forecast, the growth pace of Australia’s economy will decrease from 3.5% to 3.25% in 2010. The specialists believe that the central bank will raise interest rates only once more in 2010 as inflation won’t exceed the central bank’s target.
New Zealand’s dollar managed to compensate its former decline on the expectations that the country’s central bank will lift up interest rates at its second meeting in July. Strategists at ANZ National Bank Ltd. in Wellington believe that the increase in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rates would cause the restart of carry trade.
In June Australian dollar added 1.7% versus US dollar, while New Zealand’s currency strengthened by 2.5% as concern over Europe’s debt crisis eased. The key interest rate is equal to 4.5% in Australia and 2.75% in New Zealand.
[COLOR="green"]Goldman Sachs: the SNB left the key rate at minimum[/COLOR]
The Swiss central bank (SNB) decided to leave its key interest rate at 0.25% in line with economists’ forecasts.
In addition, the SNB loosened its policy that previously focused on preventing franc from excessive appreciation versus the single currency as the deflation risk seems to be down. Switzerland’s monetary authorities claim that even though strong franc affects the country’s exports, the advance of the national currency is compensated by the growth in foreign demand. Franc gained 8% versus euro during the past six months.
Economists at Goldman Sachs Holdings Inc. in Frankfurt note that it’s possible to see the need of rate increase in terms of the current Swiss levels inflation and economic growth. However, European environment makes it necessary for the SNB continue monetary easing.
According to the forecast of the central bank, Switzerland’s economic growth will be equal in 2010 to 2%, while the average inflation level – to 0.9%.
[COLOR="green"]Mizuho: euro should rise above 1.2300[/COLOR]
European currency rose from last week’s minimum at 1.1875 and reached 1.2355 level on Wednesday.
Technical analysts at Mizuho claim that if the pair EUR/USD rises above 1.2300, it would be much easier for the pair to show further advance. The specialists forecast that the single currency will consolidate in its current trading area. If the week is closed above 1.2300, euro will rise higher.
If euro’s rate goes up, resistance levels will be found at 1.2338, 1.2355 and 1.2388. If the pair declines, support levels will be 1.2255, 1.2200 and 1.2168/1.2140.
[COLOR="green"]Pimco: the Fed won't change rates in the long term[/COLOR]
Economists at Pacific Investment Management Co. believe that the Federal Reserve will leave its key interest rates at the current levels for a very long period of time. According to the specialists, global demand will be harmed by the euro zone’s austerity measures and deflationary fiscal policy.
Pimco managing $1.1 trillion of assets expects that the world’s economic growth will be below average, while the regulation will be strengthening and unemployment staying above natural rate during the next 3-5 years.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting will take place on June 22-23 in Washington.
[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank AG: dollar may rise to 93.50 yen[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Commerzbank AG claim that the greenback may rise to 93.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement of May decline) trading versus yen if it manages to stay above support area between 90.97 (support line inclined upwards) and 90.85 yen (last week’s minimum). If the pair is able to overcome 93.50 level, it may advance to 95.00.
USD/JPY is currently trading at 91.20/30.
[COLOR="green"]Pound jumped on retail sales growth[/COLOR]
British currency bounced by 0.2% almost to the month’s maximum versus the greenback. It happened as UK retail sales gained in May 0.6% while the economists were looking forward to only 0.1% increase. As a result, investors’ sentiment about the country’s economic growth improved.
Before this sterling declined after Bank of England claimed that inflation may fall as economic growth slows down making investors think that the central bank would keep rates at minimal level for a long time.
[COLOR="green"]Spain organised successful bond auction [/COLOR]
The single currency fell from yesterday' maximum at 1.2355 to today’s minimum at 1.2245. then euro bounced by 150 pips to the 3-week maximum at 1.2380 area.
Such advance of the European currency can be explained by sufficient demand for Spanish debt. The country was able to sell on today's auction long-term government bonds of 3.479 billion euro. As a result, market’s confidence to euro increased.
The analysts believe that Spain will rest in the center of investors’ attention. The results of Spanish banking system’s stress test are to be released later today.
[COLOR="Green"]On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets[/COLOR]
