[COLOR="Green"]Forecast Pte: euro will rise to $1.2672[/COLOR]
Technical analysts at Forecast Pte in Singapore expect that the single currency may climb to the 3-week maximum versus the greenback.
According to the specialists, last week euro rose to $1.2097 level that represents the upper trend line of the descending wedge linking the maximums of May 21 and June 3, while the wedge itself is formed of group of lower highs and lows.
The destruction of the wedge has to be regarded as the bullish signal, so the European currency is thought to extend to May 21 maximum at $1.2672.
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Saxo Bank: daily currency forecast[/COLOR]
EUR/USD: the analysts place key support at 1.2190/95. If the single currency gets below these levels, it may fall to 1.2140. Otherwise, the pair will be trading at in range between 1.22 and 1.23.
USD/JPY: the trend for the pair seems to be neutral and the pair is trapped at the area of 91.00/30.
EUR/JPY: if euro gets below 111.55, it is likely to extend its decline to 110.70/80. All in all, the trend rests neutral and we’ll see the pair fluctuating in range between 110.80 and 112.20.
GBP/USD: if pound falls below 1.4720, it may continue decreasing to 1.4670. At this level it will be necessary to buy looking forward to the pair’s advance to 1.48. Put stop below 1.4620.
AUD/USD: the trend for the pair is regarded as neutral. Aussie would stay in range between 0.8540 and 0.8600.
USD/CAD: the analysts place key support at 1.0295. If the greenback gets below this level, it may fall to 1.0225. Otherwise, the pair will be trading at in range between 1.0290 and 1.0350.
[COLOR="green"]Commerzbank: pound will grow above 1.5001 versus US dollar[/COLOR]
British currency fell to 1.4500 zone on Friday, then recovered to 1.4800 yesterday getting into resistance range at 1.4770/1.4870 where double Fibonacci and the February minimum are found.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that pound may get out of this area climbing to 1.5001 level that represents 6-month resistance line or even upper to 1.5240/50 area containing the double Fibonacci retracement.
[COLOR="green"]Moody’s: Greece's rating cut[/COLOR]
Moody’s Investors Service reduced Greece’s credit rating to non-investment grade from A3 to Ba1. The country is trying to deal with its huge budget deficit. That means that the risk of Greek default is regarded to increase although it’s still not high and general outlook seems to be stable, claimed the specialists.
Currency strategists at UBS AG in Singapore keep targeting euro at $1.15 in 3 months. They note that austerity measures conducted by Greece in order to receive 110 billion-euro ($134 billion) aid package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund will harm economic growth. As a result, the current situation won’t be able to improve for a long time.
Strategists at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt claimed that the downgrade made invertors return to their bearish view on the single currency breaking its upward movement.
[COLOR="green"]Nomura: Australia's rates won't be lifted until the yearend[/COLOR]
Australia’s currency declined from June 14 maximum at 0.8666. It happened due to the expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t change interest rates until at least the fourth quarter strengthened after the central bank claimed that euro area’s debt crisis would undoubtedly affect the growth of world’s economy.
Currency specialists at HiFX underline that risk aversion has high impact on investors. According to the economists, huge budget deficits of European countries are unprecedented that increases uncertainty about how shortfall problems will be solved.
Analysts at Nomura Australia Ltd. in Sydney claim that the RBA will be looking forward to second-quarter CPI to make the decision about rates. As a result, the specialists are sure that interest rates won’t be lifted until August or even the yearend.
New Zealand’s dollar was also down for the first day in four following the downward dynamics of Asian commodity stocks that fell after Greece’s credit rating was reduced.
[COLOR="green"]Citigroup: Britain has more chances to cut deficit that euro zone[/COLOR]
According to British new budget forecasting office (Office for Budget Responsibility, OBR) created by Prime Minister David Cameron's new coalition government, in the next few years the country will need to borrow less than expected. Never the less, long-term growth is also thought to be less significant than it was estimated before.
Growth forecasts were cut from the previous government's 3.25% to 2.6% for 2011. In 2012 and 2013 UK growth rate will be equal to 2.8% and 2014 – to 2.6%, while March projection stated 3.5% advance for each of these three years.
As for the improved borrowing forecast, the OBR decreased total net borrowing expectations by £23 billion ($33.45 billion) to a total of £544 billion for the five financial years to the spring of 2015. Such assumptions are explained by anticipated stronger tax receipts and a lower unemployment rate.
Economists at Citigroup believe that the main problem for the United Kingdom is fiscal sustainability. The forecast showed that the country has more chances to solve this issue than the indebted European nations.
[COLOR="green"]Euro and pound are gaining[/COLOR]
European markets jumped up and euro and pound are rising getting towards yesterday’s maximums. It’s happening despite Moody's downgrade of Greece's sovereign debt and negative euro area economic data with the ZEW economic expectations Index losing almost 20 points to 28.7. British Consumer prices’ rose in May only by 0.2% compared with expected 0.3% monthly increase.
The single currency was supported at 1.2165 level and climbed above 1.2250 area trading versus the greenback. Sterling advanced from today’s minimum at 1.4680 to 1.4750 area.
[COLOR="green"]On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets[/COLOR]
