Let me start from analyzing EURJPY instrument, as its position seems for me more clear than on EURUSD.
4h chart:
After the price touched 131 res. level for the 3rd time, it started to move lower consequently. I counted traditional 5-wave downtrend.
*I should mention that most of all I appreciate Elliot and Fibonacci theories in analyzing price.*
When the price made a new low at 112.1 (21. Jan) it reversed and till this day it seems to be in consolidation phase: sometimes price action goes mad, but it is still standing in 112-120 range.
I zoomed this consolidation sector to look at it in details. In order to complete the pattern it should get once more higher than the previous high @ 120.32.
Then a question stands: till when will the price retrace? On daily chart 112.1 is the lowest point counting from August'08 downtrend. I doubt the price will go lower than 112, because on daily chart the 5th wave of downtrend is also completed (we counted it on 4h TF).
It seems for me that we are close to begin a bullish movement. This idea is also supported by growing concern of strong Yen from Japan government, JPY crosses are to go higher in the coming weeks.
Speaking about scalping, I will watch 3-wave correction heading down in the next few days.
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