Update: EURAUD and GBPAUD
Over the last two weeks, both EURAUD and GBPAUD crosses seem to be ranging at what may be a key figure for each. The weekly Slow Stochastic for the GBPAUD is oversold, while the monthly is headed to oversold territory. With lots of news this week--the AUD rate decision tonight--I am not sure if the reaction will not move the market against my current profits. May move my stop down to within 100 pips of the current PA before the announcement.
For the EURAUD, the monthly shows lots of room for further movement down. Nonetheless, the PA may move against my profits, and move some ways, before resuming the downtrend. Intend to hold one mini-lot through tonite.
In anticipation of Thursday's GBP and EUR rate decision, I'll observe market intent over the next two days. If the momentum continues down, this may signal the continuing direction for the AUD crosses.
The AUDUSD is moving up, but the PA is about to hit the Fibo 61.8% retracement from the 0.9860 <--> 0.6000 steep descent last summer-fall. The PA may blow though the Fibo level, but it may not. Given the unknown that lays ahead, will move to protect profits.
I can always exit, and if the move down looks to continue, I can re-enter my shorts.
Please refer to the attached screen captures.
My GBPCAD and EURCAD trades still show momentum down; the EURCAD much more room to move than the GBPCAD. Will see what happens after this week.
cheers.
PS -- as I write this [20:22 EDT, May 04 2009], the Aussie is climbing like a liana in the Brazilian rain forests, pushing the crosses down.
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